AI changing jobs but no mass unemployment expected: UN labour experts

• The rise of frontier technologies like Artificial Intelligence has caused fears of robots taking over blue-collar jobs, but a UN expert says mass unemployment is not expected as humans still have the upper hand given their creative abilities.

• Ekkehard Ernst, Chief of Macroeconomic policies and job unit at the UN International Labour Organization (ILO), says the manufacturing sector does not stand to profit most from AI, at least not in developed countries, and will not suffer the forecast demise.

• The jobs more likely to be impacted are in service sectors such as construction, healthcare and business.

• The type of tasks that are being replaced by AI algorithms are routine, repetitive tasks that take a lot of time and can be more easily and more effectively performed by machines and by robots – leaving people to focus on interpersonal, social, emotional skills.

• In developing countries, the area which most stands to benefit is agriculture, Ernst said. AI is already helping farmers figure out the weather or get the latest market prices. In sub-Saharan Africa, a mobile app created in part with the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) can identify crop pests such as the Fall Armyworm.

• Technological progress depends on whether consumers and firms ask for products and serves made possible by new technologies, Ernst said, adding that it means in part on whether workers have the right skills to implement the changes, and whether consumers want them.

• An example of a changing consumer taste is online buying. Ernst predicts that while there might be fewer brick and mortar stores, they will reinvent themselves, adding services to improve the customer experience and not disappear.

• Historically, technological advances have created new products and markets. At the turn of the 20th century, automobiles put horse transport out of work but created many more jobs for the manufacturing and servicing of cars. More recently, mobile phone app developers became an actual job, with the creation of the smartphone which did not even exist before the 1990s.

• The latest study on AI from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) anticipates the technology to have “profound impact” on labour markets and inequalities, but the path is not pre-ordained and can be shaped by policies at the local, national and global levels. He noted that humans may well be more productive and cheaper than machines.

• In addition to cheap human labour, the report also pointed to a lack of required skills, poor energy infrastructure and broadband, and transport network, as to why automation is not used on a global scale.

• There are also legal and regulatory issues. For AI to be deployed on a large scale in healthcare, for example, it must be decided whether the doctor or the AI will be responsible for claims of medical malpractice.

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